Betting Lines
| Spread | STET -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | CARK +200 STET -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +11 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | STET -7.9 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STET -7.6 (-3.4) | 149.9 (-14.9) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STET -7.5 (-3.5) | 148.6 (-13.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STET -6.7 (-4.3) | 150.3 (-15.3) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STET -6.8 (-4.2) | 151.4 (-16.4) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | CARK 88 – 76 STET |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CARK 93 – 73 STET |
| Mar 3, 2025 | CARK 77 – 72 STET |
| Jan 10, 2025 | STET 75 – 65 CARK |
| Feb 4, 2023 | STET 99 – 80 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 11-5 |
| Home | 5-10 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.3 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -13.8 (#342) | -2.4 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#328) | 0.03 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#326) | -0.34 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#339) | 0.510 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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