Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | NCCU +120 NORF -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -4.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -3.8 (+5.8) | 136.3 (-0.3) | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -5.2 (+7.2) | 135.2 (+0.8) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -4.2 (+6.2) | 133.1 (+2.9) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -5.0 (+7.0) | 135.3 (+0.7) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NORF 75 – 68 NCCU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NCCU 91 – 87 NORF |
| Feb 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 78 NCCU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | NORF 80 – 74 NCCU |
| Jan 9, 2024 | NCCU 60 – 58 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 8-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -14.7 (#347) | -6.6 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.90 (#359) | -1.64 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.25 (#355) | -2.57 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#319) | 0.427 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.8% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.5% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 62.3% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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