Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU +210 NORF -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +4 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -6.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -5.4 (+9.4) | 149.0 (+29.0) | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -3.5 (+7.5) | 146.6 (+31.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -5.9 (+9.9) | 147.7 (+30.3) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -5.1 (+9.1) | 148.6 (+29.4) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NORF 75 – 68 NCCU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NCCU 69 – 67 NORF |
| Feb 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 78 NCCU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | NORF 80 – 74 NCCU |
| Jan 9, 2024 | NCCU 60 – 58 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 11-3 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-1 |
| Away | 2-13 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#316) | -0.2 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#330) | 0.23 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.77 (#339) | 0.06 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#312) | 0.540 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 60.9% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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