Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | NORF -500 NCCU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +3 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -12.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -9.5 (-6.5) | 146.6 (+12.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -10.7 (-7.7) | 147.5 (+11.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -11.0 (-8.0) | 148.6 (+10.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -10.7 (-7.7) | 148.4 (+10.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NORF 75 – 68 NCCU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NCCU 69 – 67 NORF |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NCCU 91 – 87 NORF |
| Feb 20, 2024 | NORF 80 – 74 NCCU |
| Jan 9, 2024 | NCCU 60 – 58 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 6-8 |
| Home | 11-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#154) | -8.5 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#150) | -1.54 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#165) | -2.26 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#152) | 0.422 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 60.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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