Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | NORF -333 NCCU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +6 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -4.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -3.6 (+2.4) | 135.3 (+18.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -3.4 (+2.6) | 134.8 (+19.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -3.0 (+3.0) | 135.8 (+18.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -2.9 (+3.1) | 136.3 (+17.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NORF 75 – 68 NCCU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NCCU 69 – 67 NORF |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NCCU 91 – 87 NORF |
| Feb 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 78 NCCU |
| Jan 9, 2024 | NCCU 60 – 58 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Home | 15-0 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#247) | -5.3 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#202) | -0.94 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#218) | -1.17 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#226) | 0.448 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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