Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | NCCU -130 NORF +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +2 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -2.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -1.0 (+1.0) | 138.3 (-20.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -1.0 (+1.0) | 134.8 (-16.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -1.8 (+0.2) | 137.6 (-19.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -1.0 (+1.0) | 138.3 (-20.3) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NORF 75 – 68 NCCU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NCCU 69 – 67 NORF |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NCCU 91 – 87 NORF |
| Feb 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 78 NCCU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | NORF 80 – 74 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 11-3 |
| Home | 11-2 | 15-0 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#236) | -2.3 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#219) | -0.12 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#216) | -0.28 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#211) | 0.486 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 34.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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