Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | NORF -198 NCCU +164 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -6.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -6.2 (+0.8) | 142.1 (+0.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -3.5 (+3.5) | 142.9 (+0.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -4.1 (+2.9) | 143.6 (-0.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -4.1 (+2.9) | 143.9 (-0.9) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | NCCU 69 – 67 NORF |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NCCU 91 – 87 NORF |
| Feb 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 78 NCCU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | NORF 80 – 74 NCCU |
| Jan 9, 2024 | NCCU 60 – 58 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 8-6 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#308) | -13.8 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#334) | -2.09 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.69 (#335) | -2.96 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#339) | 0.434 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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