Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | UL +142 USM -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +7 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -6.7 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -7.4 (+0.4) | 131.7 (+9.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -7.2 (+0.2) | 128.2 (+12.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -6.3 (-0.7) | 130.4 (+10.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -6.4 (-0.6) | 130.1 (+10.9) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | USM 62 – 54 UL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UL 62 – 60 USM |
| Jan 26, 2025 | USM 67 – 59 UL |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UL 77 – 61 USM |
| Feb 25, 2024 | USM 82 – 71 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -11.5 (#328) | -1.0 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.51 (#339) | -0.16 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.37 (#338) | -0.08 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#341) | 0.508 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.6% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.