Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | USM +140 UL -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UL -3.4 (+14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -1.4 (+12.4) | 141.1 (+11.9) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -2.7 (+13.7) | 142.2 (+10.8) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -2.3 (+13.3) | 142.5 (+10.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UL -2.2 (+13.2) | 142.0 (+11.0) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | USM 74 – 67 UL |
| Dec 19, 2025 | USM 62 – 54 UL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UL 62 – 60 USM |
| Jan 26, 2025 | USM 67 – 59 UL |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UL 77 – 61 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#237) | 2.7 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#202) | 0.38 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#226) | 0.53 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#193) | 0.546 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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