Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | USM -185 UL +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +2 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -4.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -3.3 (-5.3) | 143.5 (-21.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -2.4 (-4.4) | 143.9 (-21.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -3.4 (-5.4) | 145.8 (-23.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USM -3.1 (-5.1) | 145.6 (-23.6) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | USM 74 – 67 UL |
| Dec 19, 2025 | USM 62 – 54 UL |
| Jan 26, 2025 | USM 67 – 59 UL |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UL 77 – 61 USM |
| Feb 25, 2024 | USM 82 – 71 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-12 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#287) | -9.2 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#291) | -1.23 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#293) | -1.61 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#291) | 0.462 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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