Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | USM -950 UL +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +8 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | USM -19.7 (-11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -13.4 (-5.4) | 133.2 (-17.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -13.8 (-5.8) | 130.2 (-14.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -14.8 (-6.8) | 130.7 (-14.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -14.3 (-6.3) | 132.0 (-16.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | USM 74 – 67 UL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UL 62 – 60 USM |
| Jan 26, 2025 | USM 67 – 59 UL |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UL 77 – 61 USM |
| Feb 25, 2024 | USM 82 – 71 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#160) | -14.6 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#199) | -3.15 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#178) | -4.29 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#160) | 0.373 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 36.0% |
Game Analysis
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