Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UL -450 USM +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +16 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UL -8.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -6.7 (+9.3) | 141.9 (-3.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -7.0 (+9.0) | 142.0 (-4.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -6.2 (+9.8) | 144.7 (-6.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -5.9 (+10.1) | 143.5 (-5.5) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | USM 74 – 67 UL |
| Dec 19, 2025 | USM 62 – 54 UL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UL 62 – 60 USM |
| Jan 26, 2025 | USM 67 – 59 UL |
| Feb 25, 2024 | USM 82 – 71 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#145) | -3.5 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#157) | -0.26 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#155) | -0.51 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#123) | 0.493 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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