Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UL +115 USM -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +8 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -1.4 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -0.6 (-7.4) | 145.1 (-19.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | USM -0.8 (-7.2) | 143.6 (-17.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | USM -1.7 (-6.3) | 145.9 (-19.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -1.4 (-6.6) | 146.1 (-20.1) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | USM 74 – 67 UL |
| Dec 19, 2025 | USM 62 – 54 UL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UL 62 – 60 USM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UL 77 – 61 USM |
| Feb 25, 2024 | USM 82 – 71 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-12 | 9-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -11.5 (#333) | -6.8 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#321) | -1.06 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#319) | -1.49 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#279) | 0.429 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.8% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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