Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -310 TXSO +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +11 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -10.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -10.0 (+1.0) | 155.4 (+1.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -9.2 (+1.8) | 153.3 (+3.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -8.4 (+2.6) | 153.9 (+3.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -9.2 (+1.8) | 153.6 (+3.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | TXSO 74 – 73 SOU |
| Feb 18, 2025 | SOU 66 – 57 TXSO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SOU 67 – 58 TXSO |
| Feb 20, 2024 | TXSO 68 – 56 SOU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SOU 58 – 51 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 80.0 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#285) | -14.9 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#306) | -3.06 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#311) | -4.13 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#276) | 0.436 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 58.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.4% | 36.9% |
Game Analysis
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