Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | TXSO -163 SOU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +12 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -0.2 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -0.2 (+12.2) | 138.9 (-14.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -0.2 (+12.2) | 140.0 (-16.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -0.2 (+12.2) | 137.5 (-13.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -0.4 (+12.4) | 137.0 (-13.0) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | TXSO 74 – 73 SOU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SOU 84 – 73 TXSO |
| Feb 18, 2025 | SOU 66 – 57 TXSO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SOU 67 – 58 TXSO |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SOU 58 – 51 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-11 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#291) | -3.7 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#278) | 0.39 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#290) | 0.02 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#250) | 0.523 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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