Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -163 TXSO +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +7 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -8.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-32.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -6.5 (+0.5) | 141.7 (-32.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -6.5 (+0.5) | 142.2 (-33.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -5.6 (+1.4) | 141.4 (-32.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -5.8 (+1.2) | 144.0 (-35.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | TXSO 74 – 73 SOU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SOU 84 – 73 TXSO |
| Feb 18, 2025 | SOU 66 – 57 TXSO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SOU 67 – 58 TXSO |
| Feb 20, 2024 | TXSO 68 – 56 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 7-4 |
| Away | 7-11 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#235) | -8.1 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#150) | -1.65 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#185) | -3.09 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#97) | 0.473 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 36.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 41.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.6% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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