Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -300 TXSO +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +9 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -8.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -7.5 (+1.5) | 142.8 (-19.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -7.3 (+1.7) | 143.2 (-20.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -7.2 (+1.8) | 140.6 (-17.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -6.8 (+2.2) | 141.2 (-18.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | TXSO 74 – 73 SOU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SOU 84 – 73 TXSO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SOU 67 – 58 TXSO |
| Feb 20, 2024 | TXSO 68 – 56 SOU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SOU 58 – 51 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 9-10 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#227) | -8.6 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#183) | -1.73 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#181) | -1.79 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#176) | 0.429 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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