Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | TXSO +180 SOU -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +1 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -0.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -0.8 (+1.8) | 155.7 (-8.7) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -0.7 (+1.7) | 151.7 (-4.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -0.0 (+1.0) | 151.7 (-4.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -0.3 (+1.3) | 154.1 (-7.1) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | SOU 84 – 73 TXSO |
| Feb 18, 2025 | SOU 66 – 57 TXSO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SOU 67 – 58 TXSO |
| Feb 20, 2024 | TXSO 68 – 56 SOU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SOU 58 – 51 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#329) | -8.3 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#318) | -1.01 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#319) | -1.28 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#322) | 0.452 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 34.4% |
Game Analysis
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