Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | TXSO -105 SOU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +9 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -1.3 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -2.4 (-6.6) | 144.4 (-19.4) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -2.1 (-6.9) | 140.1 (-15.1) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -2.7 (-6.3) | 137.4 (-12.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -2.7 (-6.3) | 140.5 (-15.5) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | TXSO 74 – 73 SOU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SOU 84 – 73 TXSO |
| Feb 18, 2025 | SOU 66 – 57 TXSO |
| Feb 20, 2024 | TXSO 68 – 56 SOU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SOU 58 – 51 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-1 |
| Away | 6-12 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#329) | -4.7 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.82 (#346) | -0.53 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.80 (#346) | -0.96 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#320) | 0.522 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 25.6% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 62.8% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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