Betting Lines
| Spread | TEM -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | TEM -575 UTSA +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEM +19 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | TEM -16.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEM -12.6 (+6.4) | 144.7 (-11.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEM -10.5 (+8.5) | 147.6 (-14.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEM -14.6 (+4.4) | 147.4 (-14.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEM -13.4 (+5.6) | 145.3 (-12.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | TEM 70 – 64 UTSA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTSA 88 – 79 TEM |
| Mar 13, 2024 | TEM 64 – 61 UTSA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | TEM 84 – 82 UTSA |
| Feb 18, 2024 | TEM 83 – 77 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEM | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 1-17 |
| Home | 10-6 | 2-12 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 82.9 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#171) | -12.7 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#165) | -1.15 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#152) | -1.82 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#155) | 0.484 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEM | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 36.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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