Betting Lines
| Spread | TEM -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | TEM -275 UTSA +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEM +6 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | TEM -7.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEM -6.4 (-0.4) | 156.8 (+3.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEM -4.7 (+1.3) | 153.9 (+6.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEM -4.5 (+1.5) | 155.0 (+5.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEM -4.7 (+1.3) | 155.9 (+4.1) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | TEM 70 – 64 UTSA |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TEM 76 – 57 UTSA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTSA 88 – 79 TEM |
| Mar 13, 2024 | TEM 64 – 61 UTSA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | TEM 84 – 82 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEM | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-20 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-9 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 81.6 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#219) | -6.8 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#274) | -1.35 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#284) | -1.74 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#258) | 0.432 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEM | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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