Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BUF -298 BALL +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +13 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -15.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -11.7 (+1.3) | 138.3 (+18.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -10.6 (+2.4) | 138.7 (+18.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -12.1 (+0.9) | 137.6 (+19.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -12.3 (+0.7) | 136.4 (+20.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | BUF 63 – 53 BALL |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BALL 80 – 66 BUF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BALL 89 – 76 BUF |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BALL 87 – 59 BUF |
| Jan 25, 2023 | BUF 91 – 65 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#151) | -10.7 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#84) | -2.80 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#89) | -3.53 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#88) | 0.339 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 36.3% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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