Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BUF +100 BALL -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +28 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | BALL -1.8 (-26.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -3.7 (-24.3) | 141.4 (+4.6) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -2.4 (-25.6) | 139.7 (+6.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -3.5 (-24.5) | 139.1 (+6.9) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -3.3 (-24.7) | 141.4 (+4.6) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | BUF 63 – 53 BALL |
| Jan 3, 2026 | BUF 85 – 72 BALL |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BALL 80 – 66 BUF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BALL 89 – 76 BUF |
| Jan 25, 2023 | BUF 91 – 65 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 7-11 |
| Home | 2-13 | 9-7 |
| Away | 2-11 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#334) | -6.1 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.03 (#355) | -1.10 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.49 (#353) | -1.42 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#324) | 0.433 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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