Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -225 BUF +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +26 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | BALL -7.7 (-33.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -6.4 (-32.4) | 151.2 (+4.8) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -4.2 (-30.2) | 150.8 (+5.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -5.2 (-31.2) | 152.6 (+3.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -5.4 (-31.4) | 153.1 (+2.9) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | BUF 63 – 53 BALL |
| Jan 3, 2026 | BUF 85 – 72 BALL |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BALL 80 – 66 BUF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BALL 89 – 76 BUF |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BALL 87 – 59 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#139) | -2.4 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#119) | -0.56 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#122) | -0.75 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#131) | 0.468 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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