Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | BALL -550 BUF +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -11.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -9.6 (+4.4) | 150.7 (-4.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -10.1 (+3.9) | 149.2 (-3.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -9.5 (+4.5) | 150.6 (-4.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -10.9 (+3.1) | 149.3 (-3.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | BUF 63 – 53 BALL |
| Jan 3, 2026 | BUF 85 – 72 BALL |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BALL 89 – 76 BUF |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BALL 87 – 59 BUF |
| Jan 25, 2023 | BUF 91 – 65 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-7 | 6-9 |
| Away | 4-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 81.6 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#263) | -14.2 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#269) | -1.93 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#287) | -2.69 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#282) | 0.416 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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