Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | BALL -120 BUF +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +10 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -5.4 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -3.0 (-7.0) | 137.3 (-21.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -4.6 (-5.4) | 136.3 (-20.3) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -4.2 (-5.8) | 137.5 (-21.5) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -4.4 (-5.6) | 138.8 (-22.8) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | BUF 85 – 72 BALL |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BALL 80 – 66 BUF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BALL 89 – 76 BUF |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BALL 87 – 59 BUF |
| Jan 25, 2023 | BUF 91 – 65 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#306) | -1.4 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#312) | -0.04 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#316) | -0.01 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#327) | 0.503 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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