Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | BUF +120 BALL -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +13 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | BALL -2.3 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -2.0 (-11.0) | 150.4 (+14.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -2.4 (-10.6) | 149.2 (+15.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -1.2 (-11.8) | 147.9 (+17.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -1.1 (-11.9) | 149.1 (+15.9) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | BUF 63 – 53 BALL |
| Jan 3, 2026 | BUF 85 – 72 BALL |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BALL 80 – 66 BUF |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BALL 87 – 59 BUF |
| Jan 25, 2023 | BUF 91 – 65 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-9 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -12.4 (#341) | -6.9 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#293) | -1.61 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#314) | -2.11 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#292) | 0.405 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.