Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | JKST -250 ALCN +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +3 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | JKST -1.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JKST -2.0 (+1.0) | 144.3 (+30.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -1.9 (+1.1) | 144.8 (+30.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JKST -1.2 (+1.8) | 146.7 (+28.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JKST -1.1 (+1.9) | 148.7 (+26.3) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ALCN 83 – 65 JKST |
| Feb 22, 2025 | JKST 71 – 63 ALCN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | JKST 72 – 69 ALCN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ALCN 87 – 73 JKST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | JKST 88 – 80 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JKST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 4-15 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.8 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -19.1 (#360) | -17.1 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#338) | -1.26 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.42 (#339) | -1.85 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#284) | 0.468 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JKST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 28.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 59.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 59.2% | 57.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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