Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ALCN +130 JKST -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +3 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -0.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -0.9 (-3.9) | 137.0 (+4.0) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -0.8 (-3.8) | 135.7 (+5.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -0.7 (-3.7) | 137.6 (+3.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JKST -0.2 (-2.8) | 140.1 (+0.9) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ALCN 83 – 65 JKST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | JKST 89 – 86 ALCN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | JKST 71 – 63 ALCN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ALCN 87 – 73 JKST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | JKST 88 – 80 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 6-3 | 8-1 |
| Away | 5-17 | 6-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#347) | -9.7 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.80 (#344) | -2.49 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.79 (#345) | -3.34 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#271) | 0.460 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.1% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.6% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.4% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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