Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | JKST -275 ALCN +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +8 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | JKST -6.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JKST -3.8 (+4.2) | 142.6 (-8.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -3.4 (+4.6) | 141.7 (-7.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JKST -4.0 (+4.0) | 140.7 (-6.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JKST -4.6 (+3.4) | 141.6 (-7.6) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ALCN 83 – 65 JKST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | JKST 89 – 86 ALCN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | JKST 72 – 69 ALCN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ALCN 87 – 73 JKST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | JKST 88 – 80 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JKST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-1 | 6-3 |
| Away | 6-15 | 5-17 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#279) | -10.0 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#273) | -1.51 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#271) | -1.74 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#225) | 0.444 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JKST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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