Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ALCN -175 JKST +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -1.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -1.0 (+13.0) | 141.9 (+18.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -1.7 (+12.3) | 141.4 (+18.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -1.1 (+12.9) | 141.7 (+18.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -0.8 (+13.2) | 142.9 (+17.1) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ALCN 83 – 65 JKST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | JKST 89 – 86 ALCN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | JKST 71 – 63 ALCN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | JKST 72 – 69 ALCN |
| Jan 6, 2024 | JKST 88 – 80 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-3 | 6-2 |
| Away | 7-14 | 7-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#313) | -7.2 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#284) | -0.72 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#292) | -1.17 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#259) | 0.470 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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