Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | JKST -300 ALCN +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +8 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | JKST -10.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (+9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JKST -7.7 (+0.3) | 153.0 (+15.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -7.3 (+0.7) | 151.3 (+16.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JKST -8.6 (-0.6) | 153.6 (+14.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JKST -8.6 (-0.6) | 154.1 (+13.9) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ALCN 83 – 65 JKST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | JKST 89 – 86 ALCN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | JKST 71 – 63 ALCN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | JKST 72 – 69 ALCN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ALCN 87 – 73 JKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JKST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-2 | 7-3 |
| Away | 7-13 | 7-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#264) | -11.1 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#191) | -2.61 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#230) | -3.49 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#141) | 0.430 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JKST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 60.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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