Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN -110 JKST -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +18 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -2.1 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -0.9 (+17.1) | 146.5 (+1.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -0.3 (+18.3) | 145.4 (+2.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -1.4 (+16.6) | 146.4 (+1.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -0.5 (+17.5) | 147.6 (+0.4) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | JKST 89 – 86 ALCN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | JKST 71 – 63 ALCN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | JKST 72 – 69 ALCN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ALCN 87 – 73 JKST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | JKST 88 – 80 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-4 | 7-3 |
| Away | 2-18 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 83.8 |
| Massey | -17.0 (#357) | -16.2 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#327) | -1.38 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.67 (#335) | -1.97 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#342) | 0.451 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 62.6% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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