Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UND +270 SDST -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +3 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -7.1 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -6.9 (+9.9) | 145.0 (+32.0) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -4.6 (+7.6) | 143.6 (+33.4) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -5.2 (+8.2) | 145.4 (+31.6) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -5.5 (+8.5) | 146.6 (+30.4) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SDST 91 – 83 UND |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UND 85 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UND 80 – 75 SDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SDST 109 – 73 UND |
| Mar 1, 2024 | SDST 72 – 62 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#308) | 1.0 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#294) | -0.42 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#299) | -0.32 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#282) | 0.484 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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