Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | UND +250 SDST -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +5 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -9.3 (+14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -7.7 (+12.7) | 153.7 (+1.3) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -8.3 (+13.3) | 155.4 (-0.4) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -9.1 (+14.1) | 156.6 (-1.6) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -7.3 (+12.3) | 156.1 (-1.1) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SDST 91 – 83 UND |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UND 90 – 87 SDST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UND 85 – 69 SDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SDST 109 – 73 UND |
| Mar 1, 2024 | SDST 72 – 62 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 11-5 |
| Home | 9-6 | 13-1 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#279) | 5.5 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#306) | 0.46 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#305) | 0.70 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#319) | 0.517 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.4% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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