South Dakota State
Jackrabbits
69
–
85
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Summit League
North Dakota
Fighting Hawks
Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | SDST -380 UND +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +16 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -10.3 (-26.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -8.4 (-24.4) | 153.7 (+0.3) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -7.9 (-23.9) | 151.3 (+2.7) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -8.2 (-24.2) | 154.5 (-0.5) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -8.4 (-24.4) | 153.8 (+0.2) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SDST 91 – 83 UND |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UND 90 – 87 SDST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UND 80 – 75 SDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SDST 109 – 73 UND |
| Mar 1, 2024 | SDST 72 – 62 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 82.2 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#104) | -6.4 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#152) | -1.44 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#151) | -1.84 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#134) | 0.430 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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