Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -1000 UND +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +36 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -13.7 (+22.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -11.0 (+25.0) | 156.2 (+25.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -10.3 (+25.7) | 157.3 (+24.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -11.0 (+25.0) | 157.4 (+24.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -11.4 (+24.6) | 157.2 (+24.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SDST 91 – 83 UND |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UND 90 – 87 SDST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UND 85 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UND 80 – 75 SDST |
| Mar 1, 2024 | SDST 72 – 62 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 82.2 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#103) | -5.9 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#167) | -1.41 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#144) | -1.87 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#173) | 0.404 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 14.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 79.2% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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