Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UND +110 SDST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +10 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -1.3 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -1.0 (-9.0) | 146.9 (-12.9) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -0.5 (-9.5) | 147.9 (-13.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -0.6 (-9.4) | 150.5 (-16.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -0.2 (-9.8) | 150.3 (-16.3) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SDST 91 – 83 UND |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UND 90 – 87 SDST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UND 85 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UND 80 – 75 SDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SDST 109 – 73 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 12-4 |
| Home | 9-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#249) | 0.4 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#220) | -0.23 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#229) | -0.20 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#245) | 0.500 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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