Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | DEP -148 XAV +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +9 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | DEP -4.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -2.0 (+7.0) | 140.3 (+22.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -2.9 (+6.1) | 138.8 (+24.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -2.8 (+6.2) | 141.0 (+22.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -3.0 (+6.0) | 141.6 (+21.4) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | XAV 68 – 66 DEP |
| Feb 15, 2025 | XAV 85 – 68 DEP |
| Jan 11, 2025 | XAV 77 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 29, 2024 | XAV 91 – 58 DEP |
| Feb 4, 2024 | XAV 93 – 68 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#116) | 3.1 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#129) | 1.17 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#130) | 1.49 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#173) | 0.554 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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