Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -1200 DEP +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +17 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -11.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -10.5 (+6.5) | 148.9 (+4.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -12.1 (+4.9) | 149.2 (+3.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -10.8 (+6.2) | 147.0 (+6.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -10.2 (+6.8) | 148.0 (+5.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | XAV 68 – 66 DEP |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DEP 86 – 77 XAV |
| Jan 11, 2025 | XAV 77 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 29, 2024 | XAV 91 – 58 DEP |
| Feb 4, 2024 | XAV 93 – 68 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 4-16 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-8 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#51) | 3.5 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#58) | -0.15 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#57) | 0.10 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#94) | 0.458 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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