Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -8000 DEP +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +33 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -21.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -19.6 (+13.4) | 147.8 (+1.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -19.0 (+14.0) | 150.1 (-1.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -18.2 (+14.8) | 149.5 (-0.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -19.8 (+13.2) | 149.1 (-0.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | XAV 68 – 66 DEP |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DEP 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | XAV 85 – 68 DEP |
| Jan 11, 2025 | XAV 77 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 4, 2024 | XAV 93 – 68 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 0-20 |
| Home | 11-7 | 3-15 |
| Away | 3-9 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L20 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#59) | -8.7 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#96) | -1.89 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#69) | -1.94 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#103) | 0.431 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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