Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | DEP +1100 XAV -6600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +25 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -15.4 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -15.2 (-9.8) | 145.4 (+15.6) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -15.5 (-9.5) | 146.6 (+14.4) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -14.7 (-10.3) | 145.2 (+15.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -15.2 (-9.8) | 146.0 (+15.0) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | XAV 68 – 66 DEP |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DEP 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | XAV 85 – 68 DEP |
| Jan 11, 2025 | XAV 77 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 29, 2024 | XAV 91 – 58 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 9-11 |
| Home | 3-15 | 11-7 |
| Away | 0-11 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L20 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#301) | 10.6 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#322) | 1.28 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#309) | 2.20 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#283) | 0.565 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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