Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -192 DEP +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -4.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -3.2 (-1.2) | 147.8 (-13.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -4.6 (-2.6) | 148.8 (-14.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -3.6 (-1.6) | 144.0 (-10.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -3.9 (-1.9) | 146.1 (-12.1) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | DEP 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | XAV 85 – 68 DEP |
| Jan 11, 2025 | XAV 77 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 29, 2024 | XAV 91 – 58 DEP |
| Feb 4, 2024 | XAV 93 – 68 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#99) | 4.8 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#89) | 0.86 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#80) | 1.19 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#104) | 0.507 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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