Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | DEP +170 XAV -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +14 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -2.3 (-11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -2.4 (-11.6) | 151.6 (-11.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -4.1 (-9.9) | 148.6 (-8.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -2.1 (-11.9) | 149.7 (-9.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -2.6 (-11.4) | 150.3 (-10.3) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | XAV 68 – 66 DEP |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DEP 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | XAV 85 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 29, 2024 | XAV 91 – 58 DEP |
| Feb 4, 2024 | XAV 93 – 68 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#103) | 10.3 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#172) | 0.89 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#147) | 1.63 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#192) | 0.521 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.