But where the fuck is the waitress at with my drinks! "Stand Up" - Ludacris
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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96–36 on winners spread MAE 8.5 132 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
USC @ Michigan +27.2 176.3 99% 66–96 ✓
Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy -0.8 153.6 47% 85–77 ✓
Siena @ Iona +3.6 147.1 63% 72–75 ✓
Marist @ Saint Peter's -5.2 129.0 32% 59–69 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan -8.2 161.2 23% 79–80 ✗
Wagner @ Chicago State -2.4 158.5 41% 79–72 ✓
New Haven @ Stonehill +4.0 125.5 64% 70–55 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University +7.5 153.2 75% 78–84 ✓
Le Moyne @ Saint Francis -6.8 157.6 27% 84–58 ✓
Lamar @ McNeese +17.7 141.4 95% 70–82 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Liberty +9.3 163.6 80% 73–81 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Delaware -0.3 127.8 49% 67–64 ✓
Oregon @ Maryland -2.3 151.0 42% 64–54 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Mercyhurst +9.4 133.0 80% 74–67 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee +8.7 124.5 79% 51–88 ✓
Louisville @ Stanford -11.5 160.2 15% 76–80 ✗
Ohio State @ Rutgers -12.0 151.7 14% 80–73 ✓
UTEP @ Missouri State +2.7 129.2 60% 55–79 ✓
West Virginia @ Iowa State +17.6 143.2 94% 59–80 ✓
Seattle U @ Gonzaga +26.1 148.7 99% 72–80 ✓
Michigan State @ Nebraska +2.0 140.9 57% 56–58 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Washington State +0.5 138.3 52% 76–78 ✓
San Diego @ San Francisco +10.0 146.3 82% 64–74 ✓
Portland @ Saint Mary's +23.7 147.0 98% 57–78 ✓
Pepperdine @ Santa Clara +21.1 145.9 97% 63–82 ✓
Oregon State @ Pacific +8.0 139.5 77% 53–84 ✓
Notre Dame @ California +3.9 138.9 64% 71–72 ✓
Virginia @ NC State +4.7 164.6 67% 76–61 ✗
Kentucky @ Alabama +4.7 172.9 66% 74–89 ✓
VCU @ Duquesne -5.5 172.3 31% 93–80 ✓
UTSA @ Temple +15.4 150.0 92% 57–76 ✓
Villanova @ Butler +1.8 152.2 57% 85–67 ✗
Providence @ St. John's +15.8 178.0 92% 77–71 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest +4.5 157.5 66% 78–81 ✓
Clemson @ Pittsburgh -3.8 136.0 36% 73–68 ✓
Northeastern @ Campbell +0.7 159.6 52% 82–97 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech +12.0 166.4 86% 80–102 ✓
Auburn @ Georgia +9.6 180.0 81% 100–104 ✓
Colgate @ Army -6.1 154.7 29% 76–69 ✓
American University @ Boston University +2.3 157.1 58% 64–62 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Kent State +16.3 166.0 93% 73–77 ✓
Vermont @ New Hampshire -5.0 144.4 32% 80–61 ✓
Chattanooga @ VMI -3.6 147.8 37% 71–79 ✗
Wofford @ The Citadel -8.9 140.7 21% 95–86 ✓
Southern Miss @ Louisiana -6.9 129.6 27% 74–67 ✓
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina +10.7 141.3 83% 89–71 ✗
BYU @ Kansas State -7.3 170.7 25% 83–73 ✓
Houston @ Cincinnati -6.8 130.3 27% 67–60 ✓
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina -11.4 161.5 15% 83–71 ✓
Kansas @ UCF -3.4 152.7 38% 75–81 ✗
La Salle @ George Washington +19.6 152.4 96% 55–77 ✓
Dayton @ Loyola Chicago -12.6 148.2 13% 70–68 ✓
Baylor @ TCU +1.3 162.7 55% 63–69 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Presbyterian +0.4 132.8 52% 77–86 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Charleston Southern +7.3 147.8 75% 83–86 ✓
Longwood @ High Point +22.4 168.8 98% 67–80 ✓
Xavier @ DePaul +4.4 146.7 65% 77–86 ✓
Navy @ Holy Cross -3.4 137.8 38% 65–58 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota -7.1 148.0 26% 87–90 ✗
Ohio @ Eastern Michigan +4.3 145.8 65% 68–67 ✗
Bowling Green @ Massachusetts -3.9 144.4 36% 101–100 ✓
Ball State @ Buffalo +15.3 139.0 92% 72–85 ✓
NJIT @ Binghamton +0.2 145.3 51% 73–65 ✗
Bryant @ Maine +0.3 121.0 51% 56–51 ✗
UAlbany @ UMass Lowell +4.0 158.1 64% 71–83 ✓
Hofstra @ Drexel -9.5 140.2 19% 70–67 ✓
Stetson @ Central Arkansas +16.5 144.9 93% 73–93 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ West Georgia +1.6 155.3 56% 76–88 ✓
Boston College @ Georgia Tech +6.5 139.0 72% 53–65 ✓
North Carolina @ SMU +1.5 154.1 55% 83–97 ✓
Memphis @ Rice -10.3 142.3 18% 76–70 ✓
Toledo @ Central Michigan -9.4 154.4 20% 78–75 ✓
James Madison @ Arkansas State +11.4 168.4 85% 78–74 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Alabama -3.2 159.6 39% 72–55 ✓
Bellarmine @ Queens University +2.9 173.8 60% 76–98 ✓
Tennessee @ Arkansas +0.8 159.6 53% 75–86 ✓
Florida A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +7.8 149.6 76% 83–87 ✓
Akron @ Miami (OH) -1.5 189.2 44% 73–76 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion +2.1 162.5 57% 93–86 ✗
Ole Miss @ Oklahoma +5.9 147.8 70% 70–86 ✓
Duke @ Florida State -16.7 160.2 6% 91–87 ✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe -0.6 154.2 48% 84–79 ✓
Arizona @ Utah -18.6 163.1 5% 97–78 ✓
Rhode Island @ George Mason +6.7 136.6 73% 50–61 ✓
San José State @ Utah State +23.9 147.6 99% 78–96 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +25.7 167.0 99% 77–88 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge +0.3 165.7 51% 65–74 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State +14.5 146.7 91% 77–79 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Stony Brook +6.3 143.1 72% 80–81 ✓
Samford @ UNC Greensboro +0.2 150.0 51% 82–89 ✓
Western Carolina @ Furman +12.8 151.7 88% 80–77 ✗
Mercer @ East Tennessee State +6.3 152.2 72% 71–77 ✓
App State @ Marshall +9.4 139.9 80% 81–88 ✓
LSU @ Texas A&M +0.2 175.4 51% 72–75 ✓
Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian -11.5 140.6 15% 68–85 ✗
Howard @ South Carolina State -10.0 145.1 18% 57–58 ✗
Norfolk State @ North Carolina Central -4.3 136.8 35% 67–69 ✗
Alcorn State @ Jackson State +2.1 155.9 57% 86–89 ✓
Morgan State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +9.8 139.2 81% 49–66 ✓
Coppin State @ Delaware State +12.2 138.2 87% 53–51 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ SE Louisiana -9.1 134.9 21% 73–63 ✓
New Orleans @ Northwestern State -4.4 159.8 34% 68–74 ✗
East Texas A&M @ Nicholls +10.3 151.4 83% 58–80 ✓
South Alabama @ Troy +9.5 160.4 81% 49–59 ✓
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville +6.7 136.2 73% 73–72 ✗
Tennessee State @ Little Rock -5.6 144.5 31% 84–79 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Lindenwood +15.7 146.0 92% 80–83 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ UT Martin +12.6 131.6 87% 61–65 ✓
Western Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State +15.1 152.3 92% 50–73 ✓
Lehigh @ Bucknell +3.2 140.6 61% 65–72 ✓
Minnesota @ Northwestern +8.7 135.2 78% 84–78 ✗
Air Force @ UNLV +13.9 147.2 90% 39–67 ✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word +8.6 146.4 78% 56–73 ✓
Lafayette @ Loyola Maryland +1.8 154.8 56% 79–64 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Davis +15.2 156.8 92% 81–79 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Idaho +10.3 163.0 83% 81–84 ✓
North Florida @ Lipscomb +19.4 169.9 96% 74–82 ✓
Jacksonville @ Austin Peay +16.5 138.4 93% 68–71 ✓
California Baptist @ Tarleton State +3.0 147.8 61% 76–81 ✓
Colorado @ Arizona State +4.3 164.3 65% 95–89 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Grambling +7.4 157.9 75% 72–76 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UT Rio Grande Valley +4.4 136.4 65% 63–59 ✗
UCLA @ Iowa +9.4 140.7 80% 61–74 ✓
Davidson @ Saint Joseph's -4.2 144.5 35% 62–56 ✓
Texas Southern @ Southern +11.3 168.5 85% 73–84 ✓
Monmouth @ Towson +8.5 130.7 78% 62–48 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Montana -1.0 165.5 46% 79–88 ✗
Portland State @ Idaho State +7.5 142.9 75% 93–87 ✗
Mississippi State @ Texas +9.9 159.2 82% 101–98 ✗
Wichita State @ Charlotte -6.2 138.9 29% 100–104 ✗
Alabama State @ Mississippi Valley State -9.7 155.6 19% 89–69 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +1.4 151.6 55% 83–95 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.