Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–13 on winners spread MAE 8.9 48 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Illinois @ Penn State -16.1 158.3 7% 73–65 ✓
Nevada @ Fresno State -4.6 146.6 34% 66–65 ✓
Hampton @ UNC Wilmington +12.8 139.2 88% 45–49 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton +1.2 157.4 54% 86–64 ✗
Purdue @ Wisconsin -9.1 154.1 20% 89–73 ✓
Wyoming @ New Mexico +3.7 151.1 63% 58–78 ✓
Colorado State @ Grand Canyon +2.0 141.3 57% 70–60 ✗
Kansas City @ Omaha +9.1 144.7 80% 73–66 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Montana State +13.6 136.0 89% 68–77 ✓
Florida @ Missouri -7.2 155.8 26% 74–76 ✗
UT Arlington @ Southern Utah -11.6 135.5 15% 86–77 ✓
Cal Poly @ Long Beach State +0.9 167.7 53% 66–74 ✓
Sacramento State @ Weber State +9.7 165.9 81% 82–95 ✓
Boise State @ San Diego State +1.2 138.9 54% 107–110 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC San Diego +3.0 141.0 61% 73–83 ✓
Richmond @ Fordham -1.1 136.1 46% 83–75 ✓
Creighton @ Seton Hall +4.5 134.9 66% 54–56 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Canisius -2.2 138.9 42% 78–82 ✗
Manhattan @ Merrimack +7.3 149.5 75% 66–73 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Tulane -7.4 160.1 25% 66–69 ✗
UAB @ South Florida +9.2 162.6 80% 109–106 ✗
Denver @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +10.0 163.9 82% 88–92 ✓
New Haven @ Central Connecticut +9.0 132.3 79% 61–72 ✓
Marquette @ UConn +24.9 145.8 99% 57–73 ✓
Cleveland State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +11.2 162.8 85% 71–74 ✓
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis -11.3 168.4 15% 81–77 ✓
Siena @ Rider -11.9 128.5 14% 74–65 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Quinnipiac +15.5 149.1 92% 69–80 ✓
Fairfield @ Niagara -5.7 141.3 30% 83–75 ✓
Iona @ Marist +4.8 144.0 67% 38–83 ✓
Long Island University @ Chicago State -6.1 158.3 29% 74–55 ✓
Le Moyne @ Mercyhurst +0.3 141.8 51% 60–74 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Delaware -5.9 156.0 30% 52–67 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Liberty +11.7 134.3 86% 69–78 ✓
Sam Houston @ Middle Tennessee +5.0 156.7 67% 67–68 ✓
UIC @ Valparaiso +4.0 141.0 64% 59–66 ✓
Indiana State @ Drake +8.1 152.3 77% 72–74 ✓
Robert Morris @ Oakland +7.5 168.6 75% 73–96 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky +12.3 139.8 87% 61–66 ✓
New Mexico State @ Missouri State -1.2 134.2 45% 82–89 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Evansville -9.9 123.0 18% 62–48 ✓
Tulsa @ North Texas -9.4 140.1 20% 67–72 ✗
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky +1.6 145.6 56% 79–94 ✓
Stonehill @ Wagner +14.0 147.2 90% 69–60 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Francis -2.8 147.6 40% 82–85 ✗
UTEP @ Florida International +11.5 153.8 85% 64–76 ✓
Bradley @ Murray State +9.3 163.9 80% 66–86 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Belmont +10.1 163.1 82% 68–67 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.