But where the fuck is the waitress at with my drinks! "Stand Up" - Ludacris
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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90–38 on winners spread MAE 8.3 128 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Dayton @ VCU +8.8 145.9 82% 73–99 ✓
Brown @ Yale +17.2 142.3 90% 69–81 ✓
UConn @ St. John's +1.0 143.5 49% 72–81 ✓
Evansville @ Valparaiso +9.6 134.3 84% 63–70 ✓
Murray State @ Southern Illinois +1.5 149.3 54% 91–81 ✗
Drake @ Illinois State +10.5 140.3 83% 76–86 ✓
Bradley @ Northern Iowa +4.0 129.9 67% 49–61 ✓
Belmont @ UIC -2.0 146.5 38% 68–62 ✓
Nebraska @ Rutgers -14.5 140.4 14% 80–68 ✓
Syracuse @ Virginia +12.1 147.8 88% 59–72 ✓
Arkansas @ Mississippi State -5.8 158.0 27% 88–68 ✓
Louisville @ Wake Forest -7.3 153.0 26% 88–80 ✓
Temple @ East Carolina -4.1 140.1 30% 81–73 ✓
Lafayette @ Army +1.1 140.2 52% 63–60 ✗
Wisconsin @ Indiana +4.1 153.7 68% 77–78 ✓
Villanova @ Georgetown -3.0 138.0 35% 80–73 ✓
Virginia Tech @ NC State +10.2 157.6 83% 73–82 ✓
Drexel @ Elon +3.9 136.3 68% 82–77 ✗
Oregon @ Purdue +16.1 141.4 90% 64–68 ✓
Massachusetts @ Coastal Carolina +0.2 144.4 49% 91–94 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ App State +6.2 126.9 72% 60–65 ✓
Chicago State @ New Haven +4.6 129.0 67% 63–57 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University +4.1 148.6 68% 69–78 ✓
Wagner @ Central Connecticut +4.7 136.7 69% 67–84 ✓
Saint Francis @ Le Moyne +10.7 147.1 86% 84–86 ✓
East Tennessee State @ VMI -14.6 141.9 13% 87–70 ✓
Missouri @ South Carolina -0.4 147.3 49% 78–59 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Delaware -3.6 135.0 35% 88–89 ✗
New Hampshire @ Vermont +7.2 138.7 77% 57–80 ✓
Baylor @ Iowa State +14.4 153.5 88% 69–72 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Georgia State +4.4 135.2 65% 75–74 ✗
Richmond @ Rhode Island +3.8 140.1 69% 77–82 ✓
George Washington @ Duquesne +0.8 154.8 53% 86–88 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Fordham +0.9 133.2 54% 70–67 ✗
North Texas @ UTSA -11.3 134.9 14% 81–58 ✓
Kansas State @ TCU +7.3 150.2 76% 82–84 ✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross +0.3 138.1 48% 67–76 ✓
Longwood @ Winthrop +10.2 149.2 86% 74–79 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Presbyterian +14.6 141.9 89% 62–68 ✓
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina Upstate +0.6 144.7 51% 94–100 ✓
Butler @ Marquette -1.3 155.0 47% 55–70 ✗
SMU @ Pittsburgh -5.1 142.2 30% 86–67 ✓
Miami @ Boston College -7.6 135.8 22% 74–68 ✓
Cornell @ Columbia +3.5 162.6 67% 88–67 ✗
Denver @ North Dakota +1.7 154.8 60% 98–79 ✗
Omaha @ North Dakota State +9.7 144.2 84% 84–92 ✓
Cleveland State @ IU Indianapolis +0.2 167.0 52% 74–82 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Green Bay +3.9 148.7 67% 63–76 ✓
Siena @ Saint Peter's -0.0 136.4 47% 65–70 ✗
Niagara @ Quinnipiac +11.3 134.0 87% 55–56 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Manhattan -1.5 154.4 43% 68–80 ✗
Princeton @ Pennsylvania +5.1 141.3 70% 60–61 ✓
Campbell @ North Carolina A&T +0.3 152.8 51% 79–71 ✗
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +6.5 138.7 75% 78–71 ✗
Ole Miss @ Texas +9.3 143.9 82% 68–79 ✓
Jacksonville @ West Georgia +0.6 139.6 50% 73–87 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Bellarmine +0.5 152.5 54% 65–81 ✓
Missouri State @ Liberty +11.3 140.8 85% 76–79 ✓
Utah @ Kansas +16.6 148.0 90% 59–71 ✓
William & Mary @ Hampton -4.7 143.7 29% 74–77 ✗
La Salle @ Saint Louis +21.0 144.8 91% 58–82 ✓
Western Michigan @ Texas State +3.1 143.2 65% 61–77 ✓
Kent State @ Southern Miss -2.2 148.5 35% 65–66 ✗
Ball State @ UL Monroe -2.7 135.3 32% 73–68 ✓
Bowling Green @ Arkansas State +0.3 145.8 54% 54–91 ✓
Florida International @ Western Kentucky +3.0 146.8 67% 70–80 ✓
Sam Houston @ Louisiana Tech -5.6 137.1 26% 78–87 ✗
Oklahoma @ Vanderbilt +14.0 157.0 88% 92–91 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Fairleigh Dickinson -1.2 132.3 40% 52–55 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Arizona +17.1 161.2 89% 47–84 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Marshall -0.9 160.0 40% 90–74 ✓
Buffalo @ South Alabama +1.9 139.5 57% 69–81 ✓
Central Michigan @ Louisiana +0.6 131.3 52% 80–85 ✓
Toledo @ James Madison -0.5 146.2 45% 71–73 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ George Mason +8.6 134.4 81% 52–60 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Northridge +7.3 150.3 78% 74–88 ✓
DePaul @ Providence +5.2 151.0 69% 72–90 ✓
Florida State @ Notre Dame +4.7 148.1 70% 82–79 ✗
American University @ Navy +6.9 130.6 77% 73–82 ✓
Stonehill @ Long Island University +10.7 132.0 87% 54–61 ✓
Maine @ Bryant +0.9 125.2 53% 67–73 ✓
Binghamton @ NJIT +10.7 141.2 85% 64–73 ✓
Towson @ Hofstra +4.7 133.7 71% 49–71 ✓
Northeastern @ Stony Brook +6.5 148.0 77% 55–69 ✓
Western Carolina @ Wofford +6.8 151.4 77% 66–77 ✓
Alabama @ Auburn +3.5 168.6 62% 96–92 ✗
North Florida @ Queens University +10.6 170.3 87% 72–91 ✓
Morehead State @ UT Martin +10.2 130.9 83% 61–55 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Little Rock -1.8 130.0 41% 71–61 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech +2.1 137.6 59% 60–54 ✗
UT Arlington @ Utah Valley +8.1 138.5 79% 60–81 ✓
South Carolina State @ Howard +13.5 139.6 88% 57–85 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Norfolk State +3.5 142.9 66% 68–75 ✓
Grand Canyon @ UNLV -4.4 144.3 31% 78–80 ✗
Robert Morris @ Youngstown State +2.6 143.7 65% 72–66 ✗
Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana +2.5 132.3 62% 47–55 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Nicholls +0.6 131.6 50% 83–76 ✗
Western Illinois @ Tennessee State +12.9 147.0 88% 56–83 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Morgan State -1.8 134.0 41% 71–79 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Southeast Missouri State +10.3 136.3 84% 65–90 ✓
Colgate @ Bucknell -3.9 142.5 32% 78–59 ✓
Milwaukee @ Northern Kentucky +6.1 149.3 72% 62–67 ✓
Harvard @ Dartmouth +0.3 140.0 50% 71–58 ✗
Cal Poly @ UC Davis +6.8 160.1 77% 58–67 ✓
Incarnate Word @ McNeese +13.9 142.1 88% 64–81 ✓
Stetson @ Eastern Kentucky +6.5 148.3 75% 88–100 ✓
North Alabama @ Austin Peay +12.3 141.4 88% 62–91 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Lipscomb +2.6 150.2 63% 86–78 ✗
Alabama State @ Grambling +4.3 140.8 69% 47–57 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +10.2 149.7 85% 76–82 ✓
Delaware State @ Coppin State -3.6 131.5 34% 47–65 ✗
Gonzaga @ Oregon State -14.4 143.7 15% 81–61 ✓
Akron @ Troy -4.4 156.3 32% 69–79 ✗
Texas Southern @ Florida A&M +2.2 142.0 61% 62–57 ✗
Santa Clara @ Washington State -5.7 150.6 28% 96–92 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Southern +4.1 143.8 69% 68–81 ✓
Seton Hall @ Creighton +0.5 134.4 52% 68–69 ✓
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +8.2 155.2 81% 68–67 ✗
Mercer @ Samford -1.5 153.4 44% 49–69 ✗
Lamar @ Stephen F. Austin +12.4 137.1 86% 74–84 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ New Orleans +0.7 145.9 53% 95–76 ✗
Northwestern State @ East Texas A&M +2.3 139.4 59% 48–52 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho State +0.7 147.4 51% 69–61 ✗
Idaho @ Montana +2.5 144.1 64% 68–73 ✓
Georgia @ LSU -0.2 161.5 50% 83–71 ✓
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State -5.6 140.0 25% 97–81 ✓
Duke @ North Carolina -4.4 141.1 28% 68–71 ✗
Alcorn State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +7.5 147.1 78% 77–84 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.