Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | CCSU -250 WAG +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +17 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | CCSU -5.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -5.5 (+11.5) | 138.7 (+12.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -6.1 (+10.9) | 136.5 (+14.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -4.7 (+12.3) | 136.7 (+14.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -4.2 (+12.8) | 136.4 (+14.6) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | WAG 70 – 60 CCSU |
| Jan 30, 2026 | CCSU 62 – 55 WAG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CCSU 55 – 48 WAG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WAG 62 – 57 CCSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | WAG 66 – 56 CCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCSU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#284) | -9.8 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#270) | -2.53 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#290) | -3.30 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#268) | 0.386 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCSU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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