Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BU -238 L-MD +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | BU -6.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (-11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -4.0 (+5.0) | 146.7 (+0.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -4.1 (+4.9) | 148.6 (-1.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -3.9 (+5.1) | 150.2 (-3.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -4.6 (+4.4) | 149.9 (-2.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | L-MD 74 – 57 BU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | BU 68 – 66 L-MD |
| Feb 1, 2025 | L-MD 69 – 67 BU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | BU 82 – 79 L-MD |
| Jan 13, 2024 | BU 60 – 58 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#282) | -11.2 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#322) | -2.11 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#325) | -2.72 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#329) | 0.405 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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