Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD -110 BU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -1.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -0.7 (+2.7) | 128.8 (+7.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -0.2 (+1.8) | 130.6 (+5.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -0.0 (+2.0) | 131.2 (+4.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -0.2 (+1.8) | 129.5 (+6.5) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | BU 78 – 69 L-MD |
| Jan 17, 2026 | L-MD 74 – 57 BU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | BU 68 – 66 L-MD |
| Feb 25, 2024 | BU 82 – 79 L-MD |
| Jan 13, 2024 | BU 60 – 58 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-7 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#314) | -8.1 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#310) | -1.00 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#308) | -1.46 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#323) | 0.452 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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